Market Reversal: Fed's Hawkish Minutes and Oil Surge Above $104 Hit Stocks
On Thursday, October 8, 2026 (data as of 14:30 Almaty time / UTC+5), markets reversed amid the Fed's hawkish minutes and a more than 4% jump in oil prices. The combination of expensive energy and peak Treasury yields
On Thursday, October 8, 2026 (data as of 14:30 Almaty time / UTC+5), markets reversed amid the Fed's hawkish minutes and a more than 4% surge in oil prices. The combination of expensive energy and peak Treasury yields is dampening risk appetite worldwide: global stock indices and cryptocurrencies are in the red zone.
Fed Minutes: Hawkish Signal and UST Yields at 5.34%
FOMC Summary: The minutes from the September meeting were tougher than expected — most participants see another rate hike as appropriate before year-end, with the probability of a December hike rising to 78%. The regulator also warned about inflation risks from record investments in AI.
Bond Market: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5.34%, while 30-year yields remain near 5.68%. In Europe, the sell-off intensified: yields on Italian and French government bonds increased by 10–15 basis points.
Stocks and Currencies: Pullback from Records and Dollar at 17-Month High
Market Sell-Off: After record highs the day before, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated (−0.22%), Asia’s rally reversed (Nikkei 225 −1.42%), and Europe opened deep in the red (Euro Stoxx 50 −1.40%) due to pressure from expensive energy.
Currency Desk: EUR/USD is testing 17-month lows (1.1188). The dollar holds gains supported by the Fed’s hawkish tone and demand for safe-haven assets amid tensions around Iran.
| Instrument / Pair | Current / Close | Change for the Day |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1188 | −0.08% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3195 | −0.14% |
| USD/JPY | 158.19 | +0.08% |
| Nikkei 225 (Asia) | 69,042 | −1.42% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe) | 6,165 | −1.40% |
Commodities and Crypto: Brent Soars (+4.1%) and Bitcoin Consolidates
Explosive Oil Growth: Brent surged to $104.32 (+4.11%) — a two-week high. Reasons include geopolitics around Iran, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and production shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Isaias.
Precious Metals and Crypto: Gold hovers near August lows ($4,126), squeezed between inflation expectations from oil and high rates. Bitcoin stabilized around $83,000 after a 4% drop the day before.
Calendar and Benchmarks (October 8, Almaty Time)
| Time / Day | Event / Release | Status / Importance |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday | US Unemployment Claims | High |
| Friday | US Producer Price Index (PPI) | Key |
| Throughout the Day | Speeches by ECB and Fed Officials | Medium |
What Traders Should Watch:
- Negative Linked Scenario: The combination of "high yields + expensive oil" exerts double pressure on the stock market. Maintain a cautious stance on equities.
- Risks of Sudden Oil Gaps: The 4% jump was driven by geopolitical headlines. Avoid tight stop-losses and pending orders on energy assets.
- Differentiated Risk Management: Oil volatility far exceeds levels seen in indices and gold — calculate lot size individually for each instrument.