UST 30Y at 5.67%, Euro below 1.13, and Tensions around Iran: Global Market Overview
On Friday, October 2, 2026 (data as of 11:50 Almaty time / UTC+5), the markets are unequivocally driven by the US debt segment. Yields on 10-year UST tested 5.34%, and 30-year UST reached 5.67% (the highest since 2002). This pushed the dollar index
On Friday, October 2, 2026 (data as of 11:50 Almaty time / UTC+5), the markets are unequivocally driven by the US debt segment. Yields on 10-year UST tested 5.34%, and 30-year UST reached 5.67% (the highest since 2002). This pushed the dollar index DXY to its 2026 peak (~102.0) and crashed EUR/USD below 1.1300. Today at 17:30, the main release of the week will be published — the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Macrostructure: Highest rates in 24 years and mixed signals
Debt market extremes: 10-year UST soared to 5.34%, 30-year to 5.67%. The probability of an October Fed rate hike fell below 40% due to soft PCE (3.0% YoY), but hawkish remarks from the Dallas Fed (supporting a +50 bps hike) and strong jobless claims (197k) keep yields at peaks.
Market dynamics: The US recovered from the evening yield pullback with gains in energy (+1.9%). Europe is declining (Euro Stoxx 50 −1.48%), and Asia shows drops in Hang Seng (−2.8%) and Nikkei (−0.9%) amid holidays in China and India.
Currencies and Commodities: DXY at 2025 highs, oil holds above $101
Pressure on euro and yen: DXY strengthened to 102.0. EUR/USD slipped to 1.1245 (−0.75%) due to expensive energy and rate differentials. Inflation in Tokyo jumped to 2.7% (highest since August 2025), strengthening arguments for a BoJ rate hike, but USD/JPY remains high at 157.95.
Geopolitics and metals: Oil maintains two days of gains thanks to risk premiums around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran. Gold ends the month down 6.4% due to high UST yields, while silver holds near $61.55. Cryptocurrencies (BTC $84,555) remain in a narrow sideways range.
Key events of the day (October 2, Almaty time)
| Time | Event / Indicator | Forecast / Status |
|---|---|---|
| Morning | Tokyo inflation (September) | 2.7% (actual) |
| 17:30 | US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) | +94k |
| 17:30 | US Unemployment Rate | 4.1% |
| 17:30 | Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) | +0.3% |
| 18:30 | US main trading session opens | — |
Practical takeaways for traders:
- NFP as the day’s catalyst: A strong report will push yields to new highs, pressuring gold and stocks. A weak report will trigger a quick dollar correction upward against metals.
- Protection against slippage: Spreads will widen at 17:30, stop losses may be triggered. Follow trading restrictions around news (±3 minutes).
- Thin market factor: Holidays in China reduce liquidity in Asia — avoid holding large positions without strict risk control.