Market Overview August 12: Investors Hold Their Breath Ahead of US CPI, Brent Holds at $89, Bitcoin Pulls Back to $63,600
Global markets remain cautious ahead of the US inflation data release. Additional pressure comes from rising oil prices and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. American indices have corrected.
Global markets remain cautious ahead of the US inflation data release. Additional pressure comes from rising oil prices and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. American indices have corrected from their highs, with capital partially flowing from the tech sector into energy and defensive assets.
US Indices Retreat from Peaks, Asia Trades Mixed
US: Indices finished the previous session in the red under pressure from major tech companies. At the same time, the energy sector and some financial institutions showed resilience and stronger dynamics.
Europe and Asia: Trading in Europe is mostly neutral amid inflation assessments and ECB actions. In Asia, the South Korean KOSPI gained about 1%, while Chinese and Hong Kong markets remain under pressure due to rising energy costs.
Oil Rally Due to Logistics, Gold Corrects at $4,370
Oil: Prices continue to rise amid threats to transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Brent is holding around $89 per barrel, WTI is about $83, raising concerns of a new wave of global inflation.
Gold: After local peaks, the precious metal is correcting due to profit-taking and is trading around $4,370 per ounce, maintaining high underlying demand due to geopolitical risks.
DXY Stands at 99.83, Bitcoin Pulls Back to $63,600
Currencies and Yields: The DXY index is stable at 99.83. The USD/JPY pair is trading around 159.45, increasing the likelihood of currency interventions from Tokyo. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is holding near 4.70%.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin is consolidating around $63,600 after breaking the $65,000 mark, demonstrating high sensitivity of the digital asset market to expectations regarding Fed rates.
Key Events of the Day (Almaty Time):
The main event of the day. It could sharply adjust the trajectory of Fed policy and cause high volatility across all asset classes.
| Event / Report | Details |
|---|---|
| US Auction | Issuance of $39 billion in 10-year Treasury bonds |
| Energy Sector | Weekly EIA data on oil stocks and monthly OPEC report |
| Macroeconomic Statistics | Final inflation estimate for Germany for July and US federal budget data |
| Earnings Reports | Cisco Systems, Nebius Group, Coherent, Global-E, Trimble, Brinker, Pan American Silver |
Conclusion: The main market focus today is US inflation. A higher CPI could strengthen expectations of a hawkish Fed policy, support the dollar and bond yields, and put pressure on stocks. Conversely, weaker inflation could revive demand for risk assets. The second key factor remains oil: escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea could continue to drive energy prices higher.